Uncertainty estimation is an important research area to make deep neural networks (DNNs) more trustworthy. While extensive research on uncertainty estimation has been conducted with unimodal data, uncertainty estimation for multimodal data remains a challenge. Neural processes (NPs) have been demonstrated to be an effective uncertainty estimation method for unimodal data by providing the reliability of Gaussian processes with efficient and powerful DNNs. While NPs hold significant potential for multimodal uncertainty estimation, the adaptation of NPs for multimodal data has not been carefully studied. To bridge this gap, we propose Multimodal Neural Processes (MNPs) by generalising NPs for multimodal uncertainty estimation. Based on the framework of NPs, MNPs consist of several novel and principled mechanisms tailored to the characteristics of multimodal data. In extensive empirical evaluation, our method achieves state-of-the-art multimodal uncertainty estimation performance, showing its appealing robustness against noisy samples and reliability in out-of-distribution detection with faster computation time compared to the current state-of-the-art multimodal uncertainty estimation method.

The remarkable language ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) stems from extensive training on vast datasets, often including copyrighted material, which raises serious concerns about unauthorized use. While Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) offer potential solutions for detecting such violations, existing approaches face critical limitations and challenges due to LLMs' inherent overconfidence, limited access to ground truth training data, and reliance on empirically determined thresholds. We present COPYCHECK, a novel framework that leverages uncertainty signals to detect whether copyrighted content was used in LLM training sets. Our method turns LLM overconfidence from a limitation into an asset by capturing uncertainty patterns that reliably distinguish between ``seen" (training data) and ``unseen" (non-training data) content. COPYCHECK further implements a two-fold strategy: (1) strategic segmentation of files into smaller snippets to reduce dependence on large-scale training data, and (2) uncertainty-guided unsupervised clustering to eliminate the need for empirically tuned thresholds. Experiment results show that COPYCHECK achieves an average balanced accuracy of 90.1% on LLaMA 7b and 91.6% on LLaMA2 7b in detecting seen files. Compared to the SOTA baseline, COPYCHECK achieves over 90% relative improvement, reaching up to 93.8\% balanced accuracy. It further exhibits strong generalizability across architectures, maintaining high performance on GPT-J 6B. This work presents the first application of uncertainty for copyright detection in LLMs, offering practical tools for training data transparency.

Hallucinations are a common issue that undermine the reliability of large language models (LLMs). Recent studies have identified a specific subset of hallucinations, known as confabulations, which arise due to predictive uncertainty of LLMs. To detect confabulations, various methods for estimating predictive uncertainty in natural language generation (NLG) have been developed. These methods are typically evaluated by correlating uncertainty estimates with the correctness of generated text, with question-answering (QA) datasets serving as the standard benchmark. However, commonly used approximate correctness functions have substantial disagreement between each other and, consequently, in the ranking of the uncertainty estimation methods. This allows one to inflate the apparent performance of uncertainty estimation methods. We propose using several alternative risk indicators for risk correlation experiments that improve robustness of empirical assessment of UE algorithms for NLG. For QA tasks, we show that marginalizing over multiple LLM-as-a-judge variants leads to reducing the evaluation biases. Furthermore, we explore structured tasks as well as out of distribution and perturbation detection tasks which provide robust and controllable risk indicators. Finally, we propose to use an Elo rating of uncertainty estimation methods to give an objective summarization over extensive evaluation settings.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly improved text generation capabilities, but these systems are still known to hallucinate, and granular uncertainty estimation for long-form LLM generations remains challenging.

To facilitate robust and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs), it is essential to quantify the reliability of their generations through uncertainty estimation. While recent efforts have made significant advancements by leveraging the internal logic and linguistic features of LLMs to estimate uncertainty scores, our empirical analysis highlights the pitfalls of these methods to strike a harmonized estimation between indication, balance, and calibration, which hinders their broader capability for accurate uncertainty estimation. To address this challenge, we propose CUE (Corrector for Uncertainty Estimation): A straightforward yet effective method that employs a lightweight model trained on data aligned with the target LLM's performance to adjust uncertainty scores. Comprehensive experiments across diverse models and tasks demonstrate its effectiveness, which achieves consistent improvements of up to 60% over existing methods.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used across various scenarios due to their exceptional reasoning capabilities and natural language understanding. While LLMs demonstrate strong performance in tasks involving mathematics and coding, their effectiveness diminishes significantly when applied to chemistry-related problems. Chemistry problems typically involve long and complex reasoning steps, which contain specific terminology, including specialized symbol systems and complex nomenclature conventions. These characteristics often cause general LLMs to experience hallucinations during the reasoning process due to their lack of specific knowledge. However, existing methods are struggling to effectively leverage chemical expertise and formulas. Moreover, current uncertainty estimation methods, designed to mitigate potential reasoning errors, are unable to precisely identify specific steps or key knowledge. In this work, we propose a novel framework called ChemAU, which incorporates our adaptive uncertainty estimation method that applies different uncertainty values based on the position of reasoning steps within the whole reasoning chain. Leveraging this method, ChemAU identifies gaps in chemistry knowledge and precisely supplements chemical expertise with the specialized domain model, thereby correcting and updating the previously flawed reasoning chain. Our experiments with three popular LLMs across three chemistry datasets demonstrate that ChemAU significantly enhances both reasoning accuracy and uncertainty estimation.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes applications, robust uncertainty estimation is essential for ensuring the safe and trustworthy deployment of LLMs. We present the most comprehensive study to date of uncertainty estimation in LLMs, evaluating 80 models spanning open- and closed-source families, dense and Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures, reasoning and non-reasoning modes, quantization variants and parameter scales from 0.6B to 671B. Focusing on three representative black-box single-pass methods, including token probability-based uncertainty (TPU), numerical verbal uncertainty (NVU), and linguistic verbal uncertainty (LVU), we systematically evaluate uncertainty calibration and selective classification using the challenging MMLU-Pro benchmark, which covers both reasoning-intensive and knowledge-based tasks. Our results show that LVU consistently outperforms TPU and NVU, offering stronger calibration and discrimination while being more interpretable. We also find that high accuracy does not imply reliable uncertainty, and that model scale, post-training, reasoning ability and quantization all influence estimation performance. Notably, LLMs exhibit better uncertainty estimates on reasoning tasks than on knowledge-heavy ones, and good calibration does not necessarily translate to effective error ranking. These findings highlight the need for multi-perspective evaluation and position LVU as a practical tool for improving the reliability of LLMs in real-world settings.

The estimation of uncertainties associated with predictions from quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models can accelerate the drug discovery process by identifying promising experiments and allowing an efficient allocation of resources. Several computational tools exist that estimate the predictive uncertainty in machine learning models. However, deviations from the i.i.d. setting have been shown to impair the performance of these uncertainty quantification methods. We use a real-world pharmaceutical dataset to address the pressing need for a comprehensive, large-scale evaluation of uncertainty estimation methods in the context of realistic distribution shifts over time. We investigate the performance of several uncertainty estimation methods, including ensemble-based and Bayesian approaches. Furthermore, we use this real-world setting to systematically assess the distribution shifts in label and descriptor space and their impact on the capability of the uncertainty estimation methods. Our study reveals significant shifts over time in both label and descriptor space and a clear connection between the magnitude of the shift and the nature of the assay. Moreover, we show that pronounced distribution shifts impair the performance of popular uncertainty estimation methods used in QSAR models. This work highlights the challenges of identifying uncertainty quantification methods that remain reliable under distribution shifts introduced by real-world data.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) improves correctness of Question Answering (QA) and addresses hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), yet greatly increase computational costs. Besides, RAG is not always needed as may introduce irrelevant information. Recent adaptive retrieval methods integrate LLMs' intrinsic knowledge with external information appealing to LLM self-knowledge, but they often neglect efficiency evaluations and comparisons with uncertainty estimation techniques. We bridge this gap by conducting a comprehensive analysis of 35 adaptive retrieval methods, including 8 recent approaches and 27 uncertainty estimation techniques, across 6 datasets using 10 metrics for QA performance, self-knowledge, and efficiency. Our findings show that uncertainty estimation techniques often outperform complex pipelines in terms of efficiency and self-knowledge, while maintaining comparable QA performance.